Long relegated to the rank of a secondary power in the European security architecture, Poland has seen its status radically transformed since the outbreak of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Considered for decades as a peripheral state within the European Union and NATO, oscillating between Western and Russian spheres of influence, undergoing territorial partitions and successive occupations, the Republic of Poland now stands as a central and essential actor in continental defence. Its 535-kilometre border with Ukraine, long overshadowed in the mental map of Europeans, has become the symbol of an unprecedented geopolitical metamorphosis: through its massive rearmament effort, strategic investments, and crucial geographical positioning, Warsaw now embodies the remilitarization of Europe’s eastern flank and the shift of the continent’s security center of gravity toward the East, near to Polish Ukrainian Border.
The Transformation of a Border of Solidarity into a Strategic Front Line
From the first hours of the Ukrainian conflict, the Polish-Ukrainian border emerged as the vital artery of Western support to Kyiv. The main transit point for weapons destined for Ukraine, it also constitutes the gateway through which more than one million Ukrainian refugees found shelter in Poland. This dual humanitarian and military function illustrates the strategic shift of a region that now embodies the first line of European defence against a newly threatening Russia.
Poland’s geographical position holds crucial importance for the security of NATO’s entire eastern flank. Warsaw finds itself at the crossroads of several major strategic issues: to the north, the Suwałki corridor, this 65-kilometre strip of land separating the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad from Belarus, constitutes the only land link between the Baltic states and the rest of the Atlantic Alliance. To the east, the border with Belarus and Ukraine places Poland directly in contact with an area under strong Russian influence. This configuration makes Warsaw the natural pivot of any European defence architecture aimed at containing a potential Russian expansion.
The “Eastern Shield”: Militarisation of a Border
Faced with this new security situation, Donald Tusk’s Polish government launched in May 2024 the “Eastern Shield” project (Tarcza Wschód), an unprecedented initiative marking a radical change in the management of the eastern border. Endowed with a budget of 10 billion złotys (approximately 2.34 billion euros), this program aims to transform 620 kilometres of borders with Russia (Kaliningrad enclave) and Belarus into a modern defensive system.
The arrangement includes several lines of fortifications, including “dragon’s teeth” – these three-ton concrete blocks aligned over tens of kilometres – areas planned to be mined in case of imminent attack, as well as a sophisticated electronic surveillance system. These infrastructures draw directly from lessons learned in the Ukrainian conflict, where static fortifications demonstrated their effectiveness in slowing mechanised offensives. According to Louise Souverbie, researcher at IRIS specialising in European defence issues, this militarisation represents a qualitative leap compared to the simple border security implemented by the previous conservative government.
This transformation also reflects a profound doctrinal evolution. Warsaw is no longer content with reinforcing border surveillance to control migratory flows: it is now about preparing the border to resist a potential conventional military aggression. The work on the “Eastern Shield,” which must be completed by 2028, is part of a global strategy aimed at deterring any Russian expansionist ambitions by making the cost of an invasion of Polish territory prohibitive.
Poland, Pillar of European Defence
Poland’s defence effort is part of a massive rearmament undertaken from the beginning of the war in Ukraine. In 2024, Poland devoted 4.1% of its GDP to military spending, the highest rate among all NATO members, with a projection of 4.7% in 2025 if one includes the extrabudgetary fund created in 2022. By comparison, the average for European Union member states stands at 1.9% according to the European Defence Agency.
This budgetary increase is accompanied by large-scale arms acquisitions. Warsaw has multiplied contracts with the United States and South Korea to modernise its armed forces: Abrams M1A2 and K2 Black Panther tanks, Patriot air defence systems, and F-35 fighter aircraft. Polish military personnel have reached 216,000 soldiers, representing a significant increase compared to previous years. This transformation makes Poland the leading regional military power after Germany, with an army sized to face a high-intensity conflict.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte praised Polish exemplarity in November 2024, emphasising that these investments “send a clear message not only to adversaries, but also to the United States: Europe understands that it must do more for common security.” This international recognition confirms Poland’s status as “sentinel of European defence” and as a model for other Alliance member states.
Hybrid Warfare at the Belarusian Border
Parallel to the conventional military threat, Poland has faced since 2021 a form of hybrid warfare conducted by Belarus with the presumed support of Russia. This strategy relies on the instrumentalisation of migratory flows: the Minsk regime has organised the transportation of thousands of migrants from the Middle East (Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan) to the Polish border, then pushing them to illegally cross the European boundary.
This tactic is part of a broader repertoire of hostile actions, including cyberattacks against Polish critical infrastructures, criminal arson attempts, and regular violations of airspace by drones. In September 2024, about twenty Russian drones thus penetrated Polish airspace, leading Warsaw to temporarily close its border with Belarus and request the deployment of allied fighter jets.
Donald Tusk has described these actions as “hybrid warfare” aimed at destabilising the European Union. In October 2024, the Polish Prime Minister went so far as to announce his intention to establish a “temporary and territorial suspension” of the right to asylum, arguing that this right was “being used against its very essence.” This controversial decision illustrates the difficulty for European states to reconcile their humanitarian obligations with national security imperatives when facing adversaries who do not hesitate to instrumentalise democratic vulnerabilities.
Challenges and Limits of the Polish Strategy
Despite these significant advances, the Polish strategy encounters several structural challenges. On one hand, the scale of military investments weighs heavily on public finances. With an inflation rate that remained high in 2023-2024 and growing debt, the long-term sustainability of this rearmament effort is questionable. Experts estimate that this is probably an exceptional effort that cannot be maintained at the same level in the coming years.
On the other hand, Polish dependence on American and South Korean armaments raises questions about the European strategic autonomy that Warsaw claims to defend. While the American industry has reached the limits of its production capacities and has not been able to deliver certain equipment within the required timeframes, Poland nevertheless remains very oriented toward Washington rather than toward European defence industries.
Finally, the question of the Suwałki corridor remains a major strategic vulnerability despite the strengthening of defence arrangements. Although the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO has reduced the risk by allowing maritime routing of reinforcements to the Baltic states, this “Achilles’ heel” of the Atlantic Alliance remains a major concern for military planners.
Toward a New Geography of European Security
The transformation of the Polish-Ukrainian border into the front line of European defence testifies to a major geopolitical shift. Poland, long perceived as a peripheral country of the European Union, now stands as a central actor in continental security. Its massive rearmament, the militarisation of its eastern border, and its initiatives in collective defence are redrawing Europe’s strategic geography.
This evolution is part of a broader context of remilitarization of the continent in the face of a lasting Russian threat. Beyond physical fortifications, it is an entire deterrence architecture being put in place, combining territorial defence, projection capabilities, and antimissile protection. The Polish-Ukrainian border is no longer merely a humanitarian and logistical transit line: it embodies the new front where the future of European security is being played out.
The challenge for Europeans in the coming years will be to transform these national initiatives into a genuine coherent continental strategy, capable of guaranteeing their security in an international environment marked by American uncertainty and the persistence of the Russian threat. Poland, through its commitment and determination, is blazing the trail – it remains to be seen whether all European member states will have the political will to follow.
Title Image Courtesy:https://www.ispionline.it/
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect the views of the Government of India and the Defence Research and Studies
