India and China have recently made significant progress in resolving tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh by agreeing to resume patrolling at key friction points. The discussions mark a diplomatic breakthrough in the ongoing negotiations. However, China’s affinity towards the Indian Ocean has strengthened recently and the PLA has several ambitious initiatives across IOR.
Historical Context
The Chinese Naval Commander Zheng He led seven expeditions known as the ‘Ming Treasure Voyages‘ from 1405 to 1433 in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). He commanded a fleet of approximately 300 ships and 28,000 men 1. Although the voyages were presented as peaceful and aimed at spreading Chinese goodwill, their real intent was to expand Chinese influence and power in line with China’s ambitions of those times 2.
The Sri Lankan Episode
The Chinese designs were exposed when Zheng He visited Sri Lanka, then ruled by Vira Alakeshvara, a prominent and heroic figure in Sri Lankan history 3. Alakeshvara resisted Zheng’s aggressive trade tactics. During his third voyage, Zheng defeated Alakeshvara with insider help, captured him, and took him as a prisoner to the Ming Emperor Yongle’s court in China. Emperor Yongle pardoned Alakeshvara, but he replaced him with Parakramabahu VI. The cessation of voyages following Emperor Yongle’s death and China’s financial difficulties marked the end of Chinese ambitions 4, paving the way for emerging European powers to recognize the strategic importance of the Indian Ocean. Today, 80% of the world’s oil and over 40% of the world’s cargo pass through the Indian Ocean.
Strategic Significance
Robert D. Kaplan, in his 2010 book “Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power,” suggests that South Asia will play a crucial role in shaping major power alignments in the 21st century, envisioning the Indian Ocean as the focal point of future global dynamics 5. This view aligns with the ‘Pivot to Asia’ strategy implemented by US President Barack Obama. India has also aligned our foreign policies, adopting the changing relevance of the Indian Ocean Region through ‘Look East’ and ‘Act East’ policies 6.
India’s Role
The West has urged India to take its place in the evolving world order. The term “Indo-Pacific,” originally coined by German geopolitical writer Karl Haushofer in 1920, was revived to encourage India to assert its influence over this significant region. The Western powers also considered India a balancing power against other rising nations in the geopolitical context.
Naval Power and Global Influence
The rise of great powers has always been linked to the size and capability of their Naval forces. Historical examples include Carthage, the Chola Empire, Venice, the Dutch Republic, and the British Empire. The rivalry between Russia and the West, which began in the 19th century, evolved into a post-WWII rivalry between the USSR and the US, with Naval forces playing a crucial role. Today, Russia finds itself at its weakest, while China is rapidly expanding its maritime forces, understanding the importance of the Indian Ocean.
Evolving World Order. Over the past four decades, China has avoided major conflicts, observing the pitfalls of US and USSR engagements. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) utilised this period to strengthen its industrial complexes and military under the guise of peaceful slogans. However, China’s ambition of a bipolar world with the US may give way to a tripolar world, with India emerging as a major power. Dr Arvind Virmani of Niti Aayog notes that the West’s indecisive approach allowed China to expand its influence 7. The US has since adopted a more assertive strategy, including ensuring open seas and forming alliances in Asia, recognising India’s growing importance.
Constituents of a Great Power
Great power is characterised by various factors, including a robust GDP, industrial complexes, advancements in science and technology, skilled manpower, and formidable maritime forces. Key elements of a great naval power include:-
- A large and balanced fleet of warships, submarines, and aircraft. (b) Advanced equipment and strike capabilities.
- Skilled and experienced troops.
- A vast fleet of merchant vessels.
- Overseas bases and Logistics bases.
Indian Navy’s Ambitions
According to the Indian Ministry of Defence, the Indian Navy currently operates around 130 warships and submarines and 250 aircraft in the Naval inventory; with plans to expand the fleet to 185 ships and submarines by 2035 and 200 by 2050 8. Naval aviation also aims to grow in tandem with the increasing role and responsibilities of the Indian Navy. The Indian Navy has assumed the role of ‘First Responder’ and ‘Preferred Security Partner’ in IOR and has demonstrated its credibility through various missions in the last decade. The maritime missions in IOR especially after 2020 have provided India with a revered credence in the world forum through the Indian Navy, which rose to the occasion be it the aftermath of COVID, evacuation of Indian diaspora and other citizens from conflict-stricken countries, anti-piracy missions, HADR and SAR missions. Recent hints from Defence Minister Rajnath Singh about building a third aircraft carrier 9 have led to speculation about the possibility of Japan’s Kaga helicopter carrier-type ships along with short take-off and vertical landing (STOVL) fighters.
China’s Naval Capacity
In contrast, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) could potentially have over 475 platforms, including six aircraft carriers, by 2035. Despite the United States historically downplaying China’s numerical advantage vis-à-vis its tonnage advantage, a recent study by the US Naval Institute indicates that larger numbers can provide a significant wartime advantage 10. Historical evidence shows that larger fleets have won 25 out of 28 wars, lending credence to Joseph Stalin’s famous quote, “Quantity has a quality all its own.”
India’s Strategic Approach
India does not aspire to match the size of Ronald Reagan’s 600-ship navy ambition or China’s existing fleet of 680 ships (over 370 warships). Given India’s advantageous geographical position, a fleet of 185-200 modern warships and submarines would likely suffice to cover the requirements of the entire Indian Ocean Region (IOR).
Shipbuilding and Merchant Fleet
China’s shipbuilding capacity is astoundingly superior, being 238 times that of the US and 884 times India’s capacity. In 2023, India was the 20th largest shipbuilding country, contributing 0.05% of global production, while China held the number one position with a 44.2% share 11. However, plans are underway to significantly enhance India’s shipbuilding capabilities.
India’s Maritime Ambitions
During the 2023 Global Maritime India Summit, Prime Minister Narendra Modi outlined India’s ambition to become a major global shipbuilding nation. The Maritime India Vision 2030 aims to position India among the top ten shipbuilding nations, while the Amrit Kaal Vision 2047 sets the goal of being among the top five. According to a KPMG report, Indian shipyards need to increase their annual production from 0.072 million gross tonnage (GT) to 0.33 million GT by 2030 and further to 11.31 million GT annually by 2047 to achieve these goals 12.
Seafaring and Merchant Fleet
India ranks as the world’s third-largest supplier of seafarers, comprising 10% of the global workforce. However, despite this, only 1,500 of the 120,000 major merchant vessels worldwide are flagged under India. These Indian ships carry just 5% of Indian cargo, resulting in a loss of over $75 billion to foreign shipping companies annually. India plans to establish a new state-owned shipping company to increase its fleet by at least 1,000 ships over the next decade, aiming to capture a larger share of revenue from growing trade 13.
Overseas and Logistic Bases
India, through its Navy, has been working to extend its influence in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) by establishing operational bases with littoral states in the region. India has military logistics agreements with Australia, Japan, the United States, France, Singapore, South Korea, the United Kingdom, and Vietnam. A comprehensive India-Russia logistics support agreement is at the draft proposal stage. The status of Chabahar Port (Iran) and Mattala Airport Hambantota (Sri Lanka) as military logistic facilities is unknown. Reports indicate that India’s plans for Sittwe Port (Myanmar) are being resisted at China’s behest and that the Indian Government is trying to salvage the situation and expedite the operations 14. Similar situations exist where our diplomatic outreach is encountering challenges in other countries as well.
China’s Military Presence
In comparison, China has confirmed military bases in Gwadar (Pakistan) and Djibouti. PLA Navy warships are a regular feature at the China-funded and strategically located Ream Naval Base in Cambodia. China regularly docks warships and submarines in the Maldives and Sri Lanka. Kyaukphyu Port (Myanmar) poses a significant threat due to its proximity to the Indian Vital Areas. China could also coerce Bangladesh into allowing docking facilities at the China-made BNS Sheikh Hasina near Cox Bazar.
Strategic Challenges for China
Despite its numerical superiority, China faces challenges at the Malacca and Hormuz choke points. China has analysed all campaigns of the US from the post-World War era and has understood that maintaining supremacy away from the home base is challenging, even for a superpower. While China depends on foreign ports, India has 212 major and minor ports in the region and has expanded its IOR footprint with INS Baaz (Andaman & Nicobar Islands) and INS Jatayu (Lakshadweep Islands). India’s outright rejection of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has added to China’s frustration. China’s star BRI project, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), is plagued with problems and militancy. Additionally, Thailand’s Kra Isthmus project has not made any significant progress, and access to the Bay of Bengal via Myanmar will always be at India’s discretion.
India’s Evolving Power
India, once considered a reluctant power, has significantly changed. While maintaining an independent ideology, India has established important alliances across the IOR, South, and East China Sea. Today, the Indian Navy is the primary responder in the IOR, operating as comfortably off the African coast as in the Bay of Bengal. India has consistently demonstrated its commitment by repatriating stranded Indian citizens from various countries, including Ukraine, Israel, and Syria. India has also showcased its greatness and nobility by rescuing other nations’ citizens from conflict zones and assisting countries like Turkey after devastating earthquakes and the Maldives during water and food shortages. The Indian Navy has rescued Chinese merchant vessels from pirates and evacuated sick Chinese seamen, earning India accolades for which China has no alternative, considering our geographical advantage 15.
Loud and Clear
India’s message to China is unequivocal: “Aiding anti-India forces in and around India would not weaken India but rather make it more determined. With a $900 billion Chinese trade volume passing through the IOR, any disruption in the region will pose a credible threat to China. India remains a friendly nation, but there are consequences for provoking this new India.”
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect the views of the Government of India and Defence Research and Studies
Title image courtesy: TW
References
1 Levathes, Louise. “When China Ruled the Seas: The Treasure Fleet of the Dragon Throne, 1405-1433.” Oxford University Press, 1996.
2 Dreyer, Edward L. “Zheng He: China and the Oceans in the Early Ming Dynasty, 1405-1433.” Pearson Longman, 2007.
3 De Silva, K. M. “A History of Sri Lanka.” University of California Press, 1981.
4 Miksic, John N. “Singapore and the Silk Road of the Sea, 1300-1800.” NUS Press, 2013.
5 Kaplan, Robert D. “Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power.” Random House, 2010.
6 Khurana, Gurpreet S. “From ‘Look’ to ‘Act East’: Evolving India-Japan Maritime Cooperation.” National Maritime Foundation, 2016.
7 Virmani, Arvind. “From the Great Recession to Economic Renaissance: What it Takes to Thrive, Not Just Survive.” Academic Foundation, 2016.
8 Ministry of Defence, Government of India. “Annual Report 2020-21.”
9 Can India match China’s aircraft carrier numbers? Rajnath Singh answers, The Business Standard, 16 May 24.
10 US Naval Institute. “China’s Navy Continues Rapid Ship, Submarine Building.” USNI News, 2021.
11 UNCTAD. “Review of Maritime Transport 2022.” United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, 2022.
12 KPMG. “Maritime India Vision 2030.” 2021.
13 “India’s Shipping Industry: Current Status and Future Prospects.” Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways, Government of India, 2023.
14 Shifting tides: India’s port dominance in Myanmar, Sreeparna Banerjee, ORF, Raisina Dialogues, 25 Apr 24.
15 Navy performed ‘miracle’: Rajnath Singh on its operations to assist merchant ships in strategic sea lanes, The Economic Times, 05 May 24.
