After the independence of Sri Lanka in 1948, the world had better hope for the country. The country flourished by switching resources that other Asian countries didn’t have. The country’s strategic position in the Indian Ocean and internally stable political system, strong and independent judiciary, and parliamentary democracy at the time of its independence. The country always has the privilege of having educated leaders in their parliament who were known as a special class of Westernized Ceylonese. But in recent times, the country has experienced its worst phase since independence. Sri Lanka, which was once placed in the upper middle-income group by the World Bank, is now asking for loans and other useful resources from its neighbouring countries. The country is going through an economic crisis, a humanitarian crisis, and political instability because of the protests against the government. The allegation is against the current government and the family dynasty being the ruler. The agitation has allegations that the ruling government is corrupt and that the economic crisis is because of the family ruling party. In this article, we will be examining the factors leading the country on the path of failure and the major components behind the downfall, i.e., political turmoil and economic crisis, and how internal conflicts can lead to security threats in the global landscape.
Introduction
Sri Lanka is located in the Indian Ocean and has a population of 20 million. Sri Lanka has a rich culture, heritage, resources, mining, and trade. Sri Lanka gained its independence in 1928; previously, the country used to be known as Ceylon. Not only its internal richness but also the country’s strategic location and international trade routes have developed in the Indian Ocean. The country controls three continents, giving away huge waterways to Asia, Africa, and Australia. Western countries are investing in the development of the trade and ports of Sri Lanka. However, despite its importance in Asia and global trade, the country suffered from the worst economic crisis, protests, and changes in government. With the ongoing turmoil in the country, it has become clear that good governance, both political and economic, is important. The large mass protests and political turmoil resulted in a shortage of supply, a crisis in the economy, and social unrest. There are reports of a lack of political and economic accountability and remarkably poor policy-making policies. The article will address the lack of proper governance by the government of Sri Lanka and now it’s going towards the stage of failing as a country also the article will be descriptive on what are factors which will define the adverse effects the former government in Sri Lanka pose to the citizens of it. The article will analyse the question of how the political turmoil of the country is affecting the security landscape and how the inefficiency of the government resulted in the downfall of its economy.
Also, the paper will focus on the analysis of how the internal conflicts of Sri Lanka have a connection with global security threats, as the country’s strategic location in the Indian Ocean signifies regional stability mainly with its neighbouring country- India. The internal conflicts can also hamper maritime security due to its location. The famous LTTE has used the marine for its agendas, making the ocean unsafe for traders and international commerce trade. It’s important to address the growing effect of illegal activities under the umbrella of the fragility of a country; transnational crimes, terrorism and migration which can a considered as a threat to global security.
Historical Context and Root Causes for Ethnic Conflict
The country, formally known as Ceylon (the democratic socialist republic of Sri Lanka), is an island in the southeastern region of India. The country had higher standards and education levels but still faced turmoil in its governance. The country had been the victim of colonization by countries like the Dutch, Portuguese, and English. Right from its independence, the majority of the ethnic group was the Sinhalese, and the minority was the Indian Tamils who went to Sri Lanka for plantations and cultivation like tea and rubber. The presence of communal politics, which was practised by the Sinhalese and Tamil minority leaders, eventually led to the deterioration of Sri Lankan society. Sri Lanka has a long history of ethnic conflicts, as the Sinhalese are considered the original residents of the country. The issue is persistent in the present time. These conflicts reflect the negative repercussions of the formation of the government and its political party’s ideology. The period of the 1970s was a time of political unrest and issues faced by the Tamils. The party Janatha Vimukhti Peramuna did start a campaign in the central and southern regions. The party attracted the youth and jobless citizens for its raging campaign against the Tamils in the 1980s. The well-known Vellupillai Prabhakaran is the leader of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). The organization has its principles and strong agendas to work upon; it used terrorist tactics and suicidal raids to effectively expand its horizons in the guerrilla movement. Riots happened in the year 1983, when Tamil causalities were recorded and also Sinhalese soldiers were reported to be ambushed. (Nubin, 2002)
These atrocities made the Tamils go back to India, and the President of Sri Lanka, Junius Jayawardene, and Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi came together and reached an agreement where India assisted and cooperated, where India promised to provide assistance and peace with the Tamils. The LTTE captured and made a base in the Jaffna Peninsula. The LTTE refused to surrender its agenda and its arms. Later, in the year 1995, it was captured by the Sri Lankan military. This separatist group was broken out and also counted casualties of 64,000 since 1983. The group has its machines and arms and also accounts for people of the same ideology, including men and women; the number was 7–10,000. It did have its own small but effective naval power, known as sea tigers. The findings of their weapons acquisition were mainly from Burma, Thailand, and Cambodia. The suicide bombers were responsible for the assassination of many leaders in power, including Sri Lankan Prime Minister Ranasinghe Premadasa in May 1993 and the assassination of Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi in 1991. (Nubin, 2002, pp. 1-3)
In the year 2000, major offensive action took place by the LTTE as it seized the Elephant base, which restricted the entry of guards on the Jaffna peninsula. The group also captured arms and ammunition for the fulfilment of their agenda. They were found moving closer to the cultural capital of the Tamil region, and there they reportedly killed military personnel. The Sri Lankan government took measures to prevent protests by the Sinhalese population as an answer to the group’s activities. The government banned public meetings, war power, arrests, and arrests without warrants. (Nubin,2002, pp. 2-4)
Origin of Ethenic Political Conflict
Sri Lanka, being a multi-cultural and multi-religious country, has been living together for centuries. But when large diversity comes, stress and tension come into the picture. In the current scenario, the major issue is between Sinhala and Tamils, which has its origins in the period of colonization. The role of religion, ethnicity, and caste play a significant role in the political process in Sri Lanka. The demarcation and political party allotment directly depend on the alliance with specific religions, ethnicities, and castes. The differences in the state’s diversity led to a fragile form of government, and to counter surgency and the military, they have to use the crucial funds given to them. Today’s conflict in the country has its roots in its past ethnic differences’ establishment. To understand the ethnic conflict, it becomes important to examine the demography of the country and the allocation of ethnic groups. (Perera, February 2001, pp. 4)
The population of Sri Lanka consists of Sinhala, Tamils, Buddhists, Christians, Muslims, Burghers, Malays, and other smaller ethnic groups. The Sinhalese are 74.9%, the Tamils are 11.2%, and the other half is around 0.5%. These numbers are according to the 2012 census. The majority of Christians and Hindus come from Tamil, and the other sect is Muslim, which mainly consists of Bughers and Malays. The allocation of the ethnic population depends on the region, as the southern province is captured by the Sinhalese. Similarly, the central province is captured by the Indian Tamils. The other smaller groups reside in the north and east. Mainly for harvesting and agriculture, the Muslims are allocated to the east. (Minority Rights and Group, 2018 )
The major point of issue in ethnic politics is related to the ownership of land and access to it, which has been sustained for over a century. The occupation of dry zones presented in the eastern and northern provinces has marked the colonization and start of ethnic politics. The northern province is claimed by the Sinhala, as they claim the area has a history of Sinhala. The significance of Sinhala in the eastern province is related to the restriction on outsiders buying land. For the others, mainly Sri Lankan Tamils, it was assumed to be an attempt of marginalization by the Sinhalas and to decrease the numbers of other minority people. By the 1970s and 1980s, this conflict had ended in a military conflict between the two groups, the Sinhala and Tamil militant groups. The fear of discrimination and long years of ethnic politics made the Tamil politicians separate themselves from the start. (Perera, February 2001, pp. 5-9)
The Political Turmoil
After the independence, the country faced a lot political changes, including the power transfer between two important parties- the United National Party (UNP) and the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP). The UNP party formed in 1948, has the economic ideology of Laisse faire and it was a centre-right political party. The UNP included policies regarding social democracy and welfare. On the other hand, the SLFP formed in 1953 has a centre-left party and driven by the ideology of political and economic thinking socialist framework, the government had control over the economy of the nation. The conflicts between the two parties led to political instability and affected long-term growth. After the first general elections, the UNP came to power and they came up with an open market economy from 1947- 1956. In contrast to the work, the UNP was alleged to be working similarly to the colonial economic policies and not making any radical changes to economic policies. In the year 1956, for the next 20 years, a 4 parties coalition government ruled the country. During their rule, the Sri Lankan economy continued to be an import substitution regimen where the government maintained its control over import trade and foreign exchange payments.
In the year 1965, after the re-election of UNP in the centre there was hope of changes in the economic policies but there was only a partial liberalisation program initiated by them. Between 1970 and 1977 there was an intensified intervention of both SLFP and left-wing socialist parties in the economy policies. Whereas the other countries were focusing on the development of industrialization, Sri Lanka didn’t pay much attention to it. They restricted foreign trade and imports which ended in the lack of foreign industries in the nation. This also impacted the growth of private sector industries, and small domestic markets, they got shrunk over time. The failed economic decisions led to the stagnant economy of the country. The major parts of the economy- trade, agriculture, industry and banking were at last handed over to the inefficient workers of the government. Between 1970 and 1977, the economic growth went only up to 2.9% with a low rate of growth, there was unemployment, the balance of payment crisis, an acute shortage of consumer goods and political dissatisfaction among the population. The year 1980 marked the start of civil war in Sri Lanka which led to economic downfall. The government led by the UNP focused on the welfare of the society which included free health care, textbooks, uniforms, education and also giving subsidies on rice to the people. The government spent 25% of its total expenditure in 1953 the government tried to cut back the subsidies but agitation and protest were seen among the people, since then any changes in the welfare resulted in mass agitation.
The ethnic conflict after the government made Sinhalese as official language in 1980, Tamils came out as armed militant groups. The civil war put pressure on the war expenditure, hence putting strain on the fragile economy of the country. In the year, 1983 the government was spending only 1.6% of its GDP on the military while coming to 2008 the figure went up to 3.5%.
Aftermath of Civil War at Present Times
After the civil war, when the government had hopes of reviving its fragile economy through foreign debt, the country witnessed growth in the economy. During this phase, 16 lakh citizens were taken out of poverty. Till the time of 2019, according to the World Bank, the country came in the category of upper middle income. The good times ended when borrowing became a burden on the economy. From 2008 to 2012, Sri Lankan debt reached 119% of its economy. Sri Lanka now has 50 billion dollars in debt (BBC n.d) and 78 million dollars in interest (BBC n.d). The major issue related to the downfall of the economy was when the government decided to grow its economy with the help of foreign borrowing. In 2016, Sri Lanka had 46 billion dollars in debt; it has now reached up to 81 billion dollars. Countries like China played a debt trap on this fragile state with their policies. For the lease of Hambantota Fort, Sri Lanka has to pay 10% of its total debt to China. (BBCn.d)
The government also failed to utilize the loan money in the industries, which could help in the growth of the economy. There are allegations that the Rajapaksha family-led government used the capital for their agendas. In the 2015 election, the Rajapaksa family used the China loan for its election campaign programs. The critics suggest that China wanted Mahinda Rajapaksha to win the election to implement pro-China policies through a newly elected government. On a large scale, protests against the running government made all 26 ministers resign from parliament. The protest slogans by the common people are for the resignation of all Rajapaksha family members in the parliament. On July 10, protesters stormed the residence of Gotabaya Rajapaksa. This was the repercussion of bad governance, which led to the humanitarian crisis.
The major pillars of a country are politics, economy, and governance; these three are in the tight hands of the Rajapaksa government. Starting from the post of President, which was handled by Gotabaya Rajapaksa, Mahinda Rajapaksa being the post of Prime Minister, Basil Rajapaksa being the finance minister, and, in the end, Chamal Rajapaksa being the irrigation minister, The family has been in power for the last 20 years and often gets criticized for financial mismanagement and using public funds for their interests. In the year 2006, the opposition party leader Kabir Hashim accused Mahina Rajapaksa of using 820,000 dollars for his personal needs; the money was for the recovery of the state after the devasting effects of the 2004 Tsunami (HT n.d). The pattern of the Rajapaksa family investing in white elephant projects that wouldn’t generate any income or growth became symbolic of the family’s overspending. The ex-finance minister Chamal Rajapaksa was nicknamed Mr. 10%, as he tended to demand 10% of commission from any government project. His brother, the ex-president, was accused of using 1,85,000 dollars for the construction of a museum that was dedicated to his father (NIE n.d).
The successors of Mahinda Rajapaksa—Yoshita (Chief of Staff) and Namal (Cabinet Secretary)—were both charged with money laundering cases; they both held significant positions in the cabinet. The family always denied such allegations, but the miserable situation of the country boiled down to only one factor: bad governance. Gotabaya signed, fled away from the country, promised that he wouldn’t be contesting any elections, and handed over the seat to Ranil Wickremesinghe. The population believes that this is not the end of the Rajapaksa family and bad governance.
Threat to Global Security
Scholars often refer to and write about how fragile countries can lead to dangers of terrorism, organized crime, transnational terrorism, humanitarian crises and a lot more. Francis Fukuyama says in this writing that, ‘after the end of the Cold War era, the major issue of danger has been the fragile states. (Patrick, 2011, pp. 3-17). Often, terrorist organisations like in Pakistan – Al-Qaeda; terrorist organization create their controlling base in these fragile and unstable countries. (Patrick, 2011, pp. 3-17)
Another threat that can be listed is transnational crimes. Similar to terrorist organizations, transnational crimes increase their bases in such an unstable and bad-governance government. The increase in cases related to transnational crimes like human trafficking, and the trafficking of drugs, and weapons has come to light after the end of the Cold War. These illegal organizations would be logically more attracted to those countries that are more unstable, fragile, and dysfunctional. These countries provide the perfect base where the inhabitants are incapable of applying the rule of law or better functioning of laws. The countries often, due to weaker hold, fail to maintain border security, eventually hampering the internal sovereignty of the state. (Patrick, 2011, pp.18-135). On 18th April 2024, an instance happened where 8 Sri Lankan migrants who were trafficked by cyber scamming components working in Myanmar, were rescued by the foreign affairs department and the International Organization of Migration (IOM).
In the period of post covid where the world has witnessed outbreaks like H1N1, Ebola, HIV/AIDS and now including COVID-19. The world of mass travel and commerce between countries, countries with incapable governance and failing to handle these outbreaks becomes a threat to the lives of people all across the world. To contain the spread of pandemics or epidemic diseases, the countries should be prepared to handle the circumstances. Often countries with fragile governments, fail to contain and it further the deadly disease spread and risks the lives of so many lives. (Patrick, 2011, p. 207)
Conclusion
Sri Lanka’s fragile state of nature is hampering its economy and politics and creating a humanitarian crisis. The humanitarian crisis led to mass protests led by the population of Sri Lanka. The protest signified the downfall of the economy and questioned the accountability and decision-making of the ex-government. The country has a diverse culture and various ethnic groups, which profoundly affected the country’s stability as political parties right after independence had different ideologies. The Sinhalas and their dominance resulted in oppression felt by the minority groups, and the birth of the LTTE (Liberation Tigers and Tamil Eelam) drove the politics of the country.
The country’s poor management of policies often led to crises. In 2008, it faced the civil war, which significantly strained defence expenditures, the economy, and the basic needs of people. After the civil war, the country had hope for a better future, but the government’s policy of being dependent on foreign capital resulted in a greater debt burden for Sri Lanka. In the present time, the country’s debt is greater than its GDP, eventually leading to a fragile state. One of the major factors in its downfall is the family-run government of the Rajapaksa family. The family’s presence in a prominent position in parliament signifies nepotism. There are allegations of using foreign capital for personal interests and political campaigns. Cases are being registered against the family members for money laundering but are being denied by them.
The fragile state also welcomes transnational crimes like terrorism, which pose a threat to the global security landscape. The country’s strategic location plays a major role in the play of security in the marine landscape. The period of COVID also questioned the capability of Sri Lanka to handle the surge of cases in its country; often fragile states are incapable of curbing the spread of diseases, which is a threat to the world as the world is interconnected.
Title image courtesy: NBC News
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect the views of the Government of India and Defence Research and Studies
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