In Year 2025, the world is likely to experience significant turmoil due to multiple factors including humanitarian crises, conflicts among nations and even food crises.
After World War II, the United States emerged as the dominant global power, while former colonial powers were weakened and in decline. The U.S. was not primarily threatened by Russian military might, but rather by its political influence. Seizing the opportunity, the U.S. adopted a grand strategy known as “Liberal Hegemony.” The central idea was straightforward: any regime that did not align with U.S. interests was to be replaced, all while protecting natural resources, especially from the local populations living where these resources were found.
This grand strategy comprised two key theories. The first was the domino theory, which suggested that political changes in one country could trigger similar changes in neighbouring countries. The second theory, which developed from this idea, was Truman’s Doctrine, which aimed to aid democratic nations in their efforts to resist authoritarian powers. When Britain struggled to maintain control of Greece in 1947, the U.S. intervened by allocating $400 million to Greece and Turkey to help prevent the spread of communism. This marked the beginning of a series of events that would significantly impact the world for the next four decades.
The Turbulent Four Decades
From the late 1940s, a series of regime changes, coups, and genocides unfolded globally. In 1953, the U.S. orchestrated a coup in Iran, ousting Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh for attempting to limit Western control over oil. A year later, the CIA removed Guatemala’s President Juan José Arévalo, who had implemented land reforms at odds with U.S. interests.
The U.S. further intervened in Cuba following the failed Bay of Pigs invasion in 1962 by supporting a coup in British Guiana against socialist leader Chedi Jagan. In 1965, General Suharto overthrew Indonesia’s Sukarno in a U.S.-backed coup, and another coup in Bolivia in 1971 replaced General Juan José Torres with Colonel Hugo Banzer Suárez.
In 1973, the U.S. installed General Augusto Pinochet in Chile, leading to a brutal regime following the overthrow of elected President Salvador Allende. From 1975 to 1983, U.S.-backed regimes in South America engaged in “Operation Condor,” targeting political dissidents.
In the early 1980s, President Ronald Reagan initiated a covert war against the Sandinista revolution in Nicaragua, resulting in massive casualties. Additionally, U.S. support in El Salvador and Rwanda during the 1980s and 1990s, as well as actions in Vietnam, drew widespread condemnation. Between 1946 and 2000, the U.S. intervened in elections 81 times and successfully overthrew foreign governments 10 times.
The Colour Revolutions
Colour revolutions are turbulent political events like street protests, riots, disruptions, etc to achieve leadership changes. Students are an essential part of every colour revolution. The origin of the colour revolution could be traced back to 1986’s Philippines Yellow Revolution. Other famous revolutions are the Georgia Pink Revolution in 2003, the Ukraine Orange Revolution in 2004, the Kyrgyzstan Tulip Revolution in 2005, the Ukraine Euromaidan Revolution in 2014, the Iran Hijab Revolution in 2022, and Bangladesh Quota Revolution in 2024. Some other noteworthy countries are Egypt, Tunisia, Syria, and Belarus.
Most protests start with genuine concerns that affect many sections of society. Classic wars are expensive and arduous, and they bring pressure and criticism from various quarters. Compared to a classic war, revolutions are considered internal matters of a nation and arouse sympathy. However, most revolutions are eventually taken over by bigger powers already waiting for such an opportunity.
Why India?
Just as the USSR posed a political concern for the U.S. rather than a military threat, India is not a military power that endangers the U.S. either. Instead, what concerns the US is the resurgence of India as a nation that emphasizes self-reliance and nationalism under Prime Minister Modi.
However, there is a significant difference between India and Russia. India has a population of 1.46 billion, compared to Russia’s 144 million. This vast population makes India a substantial market for both Western and Chinese goods. Therefore, whoever controls the narrative in India also controls the markets and the wealth associated with them.
India is the seventh-largest country in the world, surrounded by nations that often present challenges. Pakistan frequently aligns with the highest bidder, while Nepal and Myanmar have comfortably positioned themselves within China’s sphere of influence. Additionally, China keeps Bhutan occupied with ongoing border issues.
Just when India seems to strengthen its ties with Sri Lanka and the Maldives through skilful diplomacy, Bangladesh, a stable ally, finds itself in precarious circumstances. The only silver lining in the Bangladesh crisis is that it has compelled China to dump the Maldives and repair its relationship with India—at least for the time being. This cycle of challenges is likely to continue, as I elaborated on in my article “Ring of Crisis Zones Around India.”
As a major Asian power and an emerging global force, India’s rise is disrupting the global balance of power. This disruption has triggered a cycle of rewards and punishments from two leading power blocs: the West, led by the U.S., and the coalition of China and Russia. While the U.S. encourages India to take a more active role against the China-Russia alliance, it has also started to penalize India in various ways, such as delaying promised technology transfers. On the other hand, China, with fewer options to challenge India, frequently engages in territorial incursions, similar to its actions in Eastern Ladakh in early 2020 or supports the disruptive forces within the country.
Indian Prime Minister Modi and the democratic framework in India will face considerable pressure from both the U.S. and China. I have previously warned about this in my articles “China’s 2024 Threat to Indian Democracy” and “Curious Case of Western Deep State and the Indian Elections.”
Both power blocs have shown their support for farmers’ protests and the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) protests, exploiting vulnerabilities related to so-called Khalistan, Kashmir, and India’s Northeast. While the U.S. has taken an overt approach, China has acted more covertly.
The US has employed a two-pronged strategy. It has invested in Western and Indian media personalities, including movie stars, journalists, and influencers, to tarnish India’s image. Western publications have been flooded with anti-India narratives that skillfully blend reality with fabricated accounts, deceiving both Indian and Western audiences. A complex web of misinformation has depicted India as a nation where minority genocide is commonplace. In reality, the Muslim population in India has increased from 9% to 14.2% over the past seven decades, and all other minorities have also thrived.
Meanwhile, China has continued its covert anti-India efforts. It has positioned its leading fighter jet, the J-10C, along with its most advanced frigate, the Type 054A/P, and submarine, the Type 039B, in Pakistan under the guise of sales. PLA soldiers are stationed on Pakistani soil as security personnel, and China plans to sell the stealth fighter J-35 while possibly providing hypersonic technology in exchange for a military base at Gwadar Port.
In Myanmar, China is playing a double game by supporting both the junta and the rebels. Four private Chinese security companies are operating in Myanmar, confirming the presence of Chinese soldiers there. Overall, the situation in Myanmar offers China a foothold in Northeast India.
Bangladesh has also become a battleground for international competition. While Pakistan’s ISI aligns with Western interests to establish its Caliphate, China is directly engaging with Islamic parties in Bangladesh. In December 2024, China invited 14 members of various Islamic party groups to Beijing for an assessment of emerging power centres.
The Chaotic Decade Begins
Soon, Donald Trump will take the oath as the 47th President of the United States. He has already made his intentions clear regarding China and other parts of the world, including India. This would clash with Xi Jinping’s 2027 plans. Xi has ordered the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to be prepared for a potential reunification with Taiwan by 2027. While China may not be in a position to take over Taiwan militarily by 2027, the situation is likely to worsen in other respects.
Both the U.S. and China will expect India to demonstrate its loyalty or face potential consequences. The recent test flights of China’s sixth-generation fighter jets have no immediate military significance, as these aircraft may not be operational for several decades. However, with these flights, China communicates with the U.S. and conveys its intentions. Similarly, incidents involving the U.S.-based terrorist Pannun, Indian industrialist Adani, and the awarding of the Presidential Medal of Freedom to anti-India figures like George Soros are largely inconsequential; they represent the U.S.’s method of communication with India. Additionally, China has also communicated with India and displayed its intentions by withdrawing forces from Indian territory while simultaneously establishing He’an County, which includes nearly all of the 38,000 square kilometres of the illegally occupied Aksai Chin.
Both powers have shown their capabilities to create challenges for India, both internally and externally. India, in general, and Prime Minister Modi, in particular, may find themselves in a tough position starting in 2025. There will likely be efforts to undermine the BJP-led coalition government. Externally, the domino theory is becoming evident all around India. Numerous signs suggest an impending colour revolution and increased unrest, especially in the Northeast. Diplomatic efforts may or may not succeed this time. Only time will reveal how India navigates these turbulent waters. The question remains: Will India yield to external pressures, or will it successfully forge an independent path? This will be a significant concern for every Indian moving forward.
Title image courtesy: Freepik
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect the views of the Government of India and Defence Research and Studies
