Ever since Donald Trump made history in US politics through a sweep across the political spectrum, garnering electoral college votes way ahead of popular votes and securing Senate and Congress control, the international challenges and the two wars in the European and Middle Eastern context have acquired the centre stage, as he often made lofty statements of immediately ending Ukraine -Russia war. Can Trump hold on to his promise to end all wars?
Both have real and historically perceived injustices as the justification for the conflicts with tremendous complexity and longevity. Hence, President Trump’s claims also counter his predecessor’s US miscalculations and misadventures. At the same time, almost everyone agrees, and Trump realises that the key to both wars lies in Washington, DC. Given his predilections for the contenders, however, each war will have a different kind of endgame or turn into another conflagration.
This is also evident from the selection of the key members of his cabinet, whose convictions and prejudices have a telling impact on the outcome of these wars. However, one must grant that Trump may be unconventional and a bully but not a warmonger, even though he considers China as a main strategic adversary and Iran the cause of all evil in the Middle East. Yet he also often said that none of these wars would have happened had he been the president. He is on record claiming that “I am not going to start a war. I am going to stop wars”. He also said that he would stop the Russia-Ukraine war in 24 hours. He also warned and emboldened Benjamin Netanyahu, who has spoken to the president-elect three times already, that killings have to be stopped in Gaza and the war should be wrapped up before he reenters the White House.
The Russia-Ukraine War
Trump believes that the Eurasian war has pushed Moscow into the arms of Beijing, and he could try to create a wedge between Russia and China by ending the conflict and thereby focusing on the main adversary. He has very clearly told Zelensky about his views and the limits of US financial and military aid to continue the war. The Biden administration has supported the war along with European allies and NATO with trillions of dollars, even though success and strategic defeat of Russia have evaded them. Stressed economies inflation and hardships in most Western countries and the futility of the ongoing war of attrition have created a rethink of the efficacy of their support at their own expense. Yet the Biden Administration is trying hard to provide arms and ammunition and financial aid of $60 billion to Ukraine before they leave.
Western Europeans and NATO verticals are also not in sync with Trump’s approach, which will be a challenge going forward. Besides what kind of a ceasefire, settlements, and durable or cold peace, and on what terms, are still an open question. But the continued US aid and support are critical to a beleaguered Ukraine, and fear of its interruption is telling upon them.
At the Valdai Discussion Club (Nov 7), President Vladimir Putin expressed his admiration for Trump, who was shot yet showed great resolve. He congratulated Trump publicly on his victory. He also referred to the statements made by Trump and averred that they needed to be given serious attention and that he was ready to talk to his US counterpart. The Washington Post did mention a telecon between the two, which the Kremlin denied had ever happened rather enigmatically. But this will happen sooner or later, and the results will depend also on the way the Russian riddle is resolved and Ukrainian sovereignty is maintained or sacrificed. His national security adviser, Michael Waltz, is also of the view that the war should be ended as soon as possible. There is indeed a war fatigue on all sides and stakeholders. However, in the meantime, as the Kremlin and EU, plus Biden, continue with their strategic objectives, the intensity of the Eurasian war increases severalfold.
Given PM Narendra Modi’s excellent relationship with President Trump and his efforts to facilitate ending the war, perhaps synergy in the US and Indian approaches could be optimised to achieve this very objective since the Global South continues to bear the brunt of the Eurasian war whose voice New Delhi champions. India is concerned as PM Modi continues to reiterate that this is not an era of war.
Middle East
President Trump, during his last term, has been instrumental in several initiatives in the Middle East, including the Abraham Accords, bringing about diplomatic normalcy among four Arab states and Israel. He also tried to work on a Deal of the Century for Palestine while controversially, at the same time, stoking fire by declaring Jerusalem and the Golan Heights as part of Israel. His preference and commitment to Israel and even Netanyahu are clear and consistent.
Netanyahu has spoken to Trump three times already, even as he fired his critical defence minister, Yoav Gallant. His security minister, Smotrich, calls for the annexation of the West Bank, as it is the right opportunity. Trump’s disdain for Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iran is well entrenched, and revival or renegotiation of the JCPOA (Iran Nuclear Deal) appears out of the question at this stage, even as conciliatory signals from a moderate Iranian president may be read.
More sanctions could follow even as Trump may not prefer an all-out war between Iran and Israel, as the Arab allies are also all against it. His ambassador-designate to the UN, Elise Stefanik, met Israeli President Herzog first. His newly nominated ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, is a known Israelophile. Trump appointing him stated, “He (Mike) loves Israel, and people of Israel love him. Mike will work tirelessly to bring about peace in the Middle East”.
All this indicates that an enthused and emboldened Bibi would not yield to the lame-duck presidency’s call and efforts to a ceasefire and eventual release of remaining hostages. It was also evident in the noncompliance of the 30-day deadline given by the Biden Administration to Israel for allowing unimpeded humanitarian and relief supplies to Gazans, which ended without any credible outcome. It seems that the stretched Biden Administration is trying their last flutter of diplomacy by pressuring Qatar to evict Hamas officials from Doha, which has already decided to withdraw from the mediation role given the intransigence of the actors involved, which keep on changing goal posts all too frequently.
Saudi Arabia has taken a pole position, along with the Islamic world, in condemning the ongoing civilian violence, atrocities and violation of international law in the war zones of Gaza and Lebanon. Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthis, as well as Iraqi militias associated with Tehran, have intensified their attacks on Israel, which indicates that this war is unlikely to be over any time soon. Moreover, the conservatives take hold in the Trump Administration while Iran and Israel threaten further escalation, indulging in the Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) syndrome.
How far Trump can use his influence before 20th January and after remains to be seen!
Title image courtesy: parade.com
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect the views of the Government of India and Defence Research and Studies
Article courtesy: Firstpost
