The Moneyball concept is a proposed shift in military strategy towards identifying affordable and adaptable fighting platforms/elements and deploying these capabilities geographically apart. Instead of investing in large, expensive, heavily manned military platforms, the Moneyball strategy encompasses fielding large numbers of smaller, lower-cost, autonomous independent systems. The miniaturisation of military platforms and fighting elements can make the assets more stealthy and hard to mitigate. It also suggests creating a more efficient and innovative military force that prioritizes strategic deterrence that differs from conventional warfare methods.
Introduction
Moneyball military refers to applying analytical, data-driven strategies to prepare an offensive force battle-ready with smaller platforms positioned geographically apart. Autonomous systems with decentralised planning can make this approach more effective than the conventional ones. Implementing this strategy could face challenges within the defence establishment. Ensuring the reliability and combat effectiveness of autonomous systems is imperative before executing this plan. Should India adopt this military science in the coming years? Can this methodology complement the existing hybrid and mosaic warfare? If our neighbour is adopting the moneyball strategy, do we need to go for a similar strategy to counter it?
Moneyball Ground Force
Fielding large numbers of smaller, less costly infantry, armour and artillery units rather than relying on a few expensive high-tech platforms. The Moneyball approach is relevant in contexts like counter-insurgency operations, where traditional metrics of success are expensive and may not be effective. The usage of sophisticated missiles by Israel to neutralise dead cheap rockets of Hamas/ Houthis cannot be justified in economic terms. Deploying distributed forces and opening multiple fronts against the enemy comes under the Moneyball game plan.
The Army can go for drone swarms, autonomous vehicles, modular weapons systems and even conscript force units against specific assignments. Disruptive technologies can give huge surprises at the enemy front. This methodology becomes very effective and economical in countering insurgency operations and asymmetric warfare. Man-machine teaming up is an effective approach under moneyball design. Whether deploying Private Military Corporations (PMCs) comes under this ambit can be debated.
Data-driven personal management, optimisation of force and training and smart supply chain management can make this approach more effective. Retention of men in specialised jobs after retirement and hiring non-uniformed warriors is a part of this grand design. Moneyball strategy makes use of real-time data gathered from intelligence sources, social media, drones, satellites, and other surveillance tools to make tactical decisions. Algorithms could help process this data to predict enemy movements, weaknesses and vulnerabilities. Data-fuelled strategic planning using big data and historical analysis facilitates more informed strategic decisions. The Command can rely on evidence-based models to choose the best courses of action.
Israeli military leverages data-driven strategies to optimize unit performance and intelligence gathering. US Army has also experimented with a similar strategy to improve recruitment, optimize training and enhance decision-making in combat.
Moneyball Naval Force
The need for an expensive third aircraft carrier instead of nuke submarines is still being debated by military commanders in India. Distributed small platforms with dedicated functionality can be more effective, stealthy and economical. Optimal deployment of force by launching smaller and agile vessels could deliver better performance for specific missions. Teaming manned vessels with autonomous unmanned surface vessels (USV) and unmanned underwater vessels (UUV) can decentralise the functionalities and could give effective protection to the fleet.
For specialised operations, the Navy could go for data-driven crew assignments. This approach could help identify highly skilled and trained sailors who can be assigned roles matching their skills and potential. By tracking the performance of individual sailors, data can inform career progression and assignments, ensuring that the right personnel are placed on the right ships in specialized roles. Modular construction can be adapted to switch roles of autonomous platforms. Moneyball strategy can be made very effective for coastal defence.
Moneyball Air Defence
The Moneyball Air Force concept represents a potential paradigm shift in aerial warfare strategy, offering a more affordable and potentially more effective way to control the airspace. A surprise drone swarm attack across the border is always a nightmare for the enemy forces deployed along the border. Replacement of fighter jet missions with drones, missiles and other kinetic projectiles could preserve the assets and pilots for future combat missions. UCAV with more autonomous capabilities can replace the fighters in future. Distributed missile shields over every high-value asset across the nation are at any time effective compared to a single missile shield. More autonomous wingman drones with multiple functionalities could accompany manned fighters for effective missions in future.
LCA of HAL has become more attractive since it is one of the smallest fighter jets currently available in the world. While traditional metrics may focus on size and capabilities, a Moneyball mindset would prioritize metrics that directly correlate with mission effectiveness and strategic objectives. The Moneyball approach recognizes modern conflicts and reinforces defence forces to challenge contemporary threats.
Complimenting Mosaic Warfare
Mosaic warfare employs a varied and asymmetric range of well-networked cognitive weapons and platforms against enemies to create a cohesive strategy from distributed capabilities, similar to how individual tiles in a mosaic come together to form a complete picture. Decentralization, network-centric operations, hybrid warfare, precision strikes and special operations forces for specific tasks are the main characteristics of mosaic warfare. By adopting this approach, forces can enhance operational effectiveness in multi-domain environments where traditional force structures may be less effective. Mosaic warfare and the Moneyball military are complementary and their interrelated concepts aim to transform military strategy and operations in response to modern warfare challenges. Both emphasize adaptability, efficiency and the integration of diverse capabilities, but they approach these goals from slightly different angles.
Mosaic warfare is a top-down approach which prioritizes adaptability and flexibility whereas the Moneyball one is a bottom-up approach that focuses on cost-effectiveness, scalability, efficiency and innovation. Mosaic warfare may involve unconventional tactics and special operations forces, while Moneyball Military emphasizes on use of technology and automation.
Effective Strategy for Hybrid Wars
Hybrid warfare is a military strategy that blends conventional warfare with unconventional ones, including political actions and subversive measures. It aims to exploit both military and non-military means to achieve strategic objectives, often by using proxy forces to complicate the enemy’s response. Both Hybrid and Moneyball emphasize different aspects of military strategy but can be seen as complementary. Both have approaches that leverage data and diverse tactics in modern conflict scenarios. The moneyball approach can field a large affordable force using hybrid warfare tactics to disrupt the enemy’s economy, supply chains and morale using Information Warfare. Hybrid warfare using Moneyball warriors could disrupt the enemy’s information infrastructure by spreading disinformation, spreading false propaganda and campaigning to influence enemy citizens. Union Home Minister Amit Shah of India plans to train over 5,000 cyber commandos over the next five years to counter cyber attacks and initiate cyber offensive.
Challenges
A large number of less sophisticated systems can be more vulnerable to mass attacks or technological breakthroughs. Over-reliance on technology can make a force vulnerable to disruptions. A focus on quantity and affordability can limit strategic flexibility and the ability to adapt to rapidly changing situations. Soldiers may feel less valued or motivated if they are equipped with small systems compared to their adversaries. A focus on quantity over quality may not be popular with the public or policymakers, Few ethical concerns exist for the usage of autonomous weapons also.
Conclusion
While the Moneyball Military concept presents innovative solutions for modern military challenges, it also carries inherent risks that must be carefully managed. Since additional manpower sanctions are difficult to obtain for the Armed Forces in the coming years, this approach could become more relevant in the coming years. Deploying the Internet of Battlefield Things (IoBT) under a Moneyball game plan would certainly help the management and control of a large number of fighting elements engaged in combat. When your immediate neighbour has already adopted this as a future strategy, it is incumbent on us to recalibrate our counter-strategy.
Title image courtesy: The Daily Guardian
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect the views of the Government of India and Defence Research and Studies
