U.S. President Donald Trump met with interim Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa in Saudi Arabia recently. This is the first encounter between the two nations’ leaders in 25 years. This engagement could serve as a turning point for Syria as it struggles to emerge from decades of international isolation.
For the time being, the decks are in Ahmed al-Sharaa’s favour, but delicate and uneasy calm, divergent expectations, and external powers could stabilise, destabilise or balkanise this ancient land due to lack of political will, credibility and wily craft. Perhaps for Ahmed al-Sharaa, aka al-Jolani, displacing Assad with exemplary speed may not have been as important as his being embraced by President Donald Trump during his visit to Saudi Arabia this month (May 13-16). Of course, this was done at the behest of Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), whose welcome to Syrian al-Sharaa, by extending the Arab embrace, has been strategic and far-reaching.
Other Arab states have followed suit as a reconstruction of Syria affords significant opportunities. The decimated Iranian Shia influence in Syria, courtesy of Israel’s decisive action against its proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah, is indeed symptomatic and opportunistic for the major Arab Gulf powers.
It has been easier to let al-Sharaa occupy the chair and affection vacated by Bashar al-Assad at the Arab League, who was brought back into the Arabian fold, as he tried to broadly establish his control over Syria with the help of Russia and Iran as well as being a conduit for Iranian connections and influence to Lebanon through Syria.
In this war of influence, Iranians, followed by Russians, have lost a great deal, which was dictated by their strategic distractions. Winners have been Turkey, Arab Gulf states, the US and Israel, and possibly ISIS. Israel lost no time in decimating and destroying the Syrian military and navy, and air power, while occupying the strategic Golan Heights, which it does not intend to return. That could surely be the continuing bitter bone of contention between Tel Aviv and Damascus.
Even though the new Syrian regime is keen to reduce its external challenges by following a pragmatic foreign policy. Al-Sharaa’s pragmatic and smart diplomacy, after he met with President Trump, was in play, and it is surmised with some credibility that Syria could be the next country to become part of the Abraham Accords.
President Trump has been very keen that Saudi Arabia normalise diplomatic ties with Israel, which have been predicated and made conditional by Riyadh on the establishment of a viable Palestinian state along with the ‘Two State Solution’. A disenchanted Trump has reportedly warned Israel that continued military operations in Gaza could jeopardise American support.
In fact, Trump heard this demand in all his interactions with the Arab leaders and also expressed his dismay with PM Netanyahu for breaching the ceasefire and creating an untenable humanitarian disaster in Gaza while intending to occupy it and displace the Gazans, thereby creating a rift with its two peace treaty partners, ie, Egypt and Israel. This was further accentuated as the Turkey-Israel complex and competing regional dynamics became far more volatile and incendiary, both in the context of Palestine, Gaza and Syria.
Turkey is a NATO ally of the US, and Trump seems to have some fondness for Recep Tayyip Erdogan, while he is disenchanted by Benjamin Netanyahu, and he asked both of them to patch up and sort out their differences as far as the situation and direct potential conflict in Syria are concerned. Their technical teams have met in Baku twice, but the potential for a flare-up is still very real.
Even as geopolitical and geo-economic contestations continue to play out in Syrian governance, the domestic challenges for interim President al-Sharaa remain very real. As per the UN, restoring the country’s services, shattered by 14 years of conflict, is essential amid widespread food insecurity and crippled health services, as the Tishreen Dam’s damage has restricted water and electricity for over 400,000 people. The humanitarian situation remains critical, with nearly 15 million Syrians requiring health services, 13 million facing acute food insecurity, and over 620,000 displaced amid the harshest conditions.
According to Trump’s decision, the US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued Syria General License (GL) 25 to provide immediate sanctions relief for Syria in line with the president’s announcement for the cessation of all sanctions on the war-ravaged West Asia nation.
A quick lifting of promised sanctions and immediate relief and humanitarian assistance, as well as relief from Caesar’s Act, would alleviate the suffering of Syrians to some extent. The Americans have also officially lifted the personal sanctions on President al-Sharaa and his interior minister, Anas Khattab (until recently the chief of intelligence agencies).
The European Union agreed to lift all sanctions on Syria and plans to release the first economic aid to them. Even China signed some MoUs for cooperation, including between the Land and Sea Port Authority for investments in the Hasiyah Industrial Zone and Adra Zone outside Damascus. It’s time for India also to engage with the new government by providing direct humanitarian assistance for the people of Syria, lest the acrimonious India-Turkey relations have a lasting impact.
De facto authorities’ vision for Syria’s future as a “positive contributor to the promotion of international peace and security” and their will “to build friendly relations based on mutual respect” could be a good starting point. A genuine, broad-based national dialogue conference must be arranged to establish a transitional government to oversee national processes, including the drafting of the constitution and the holding of elections. These will be tested as they move forward.
For the time being, the decks are in Jolani’s favour, but delicate and uneasy calm, divergent expectations, and external powers could stabilise, destabilise or balkanise this ancient land due to lack of political will, credibility and wily craft.
A lot also depends on al-Sharaa as to how inclusive an approach he can muster and implement to accommodate diverse interests, extremists and militia groups, extreme conservatives vs moderates and modernists and women’s empowerment. A difficult task indeed, but if he has been able to wash off his old affiliations with ISIS and al-Qaeda rather cleanly, he will have to find a tabula rasa for his Syrian dream in sync with regional and global expectations.
Title Image Courtesy: Long War Journal
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed by the author do not necessarily reflect the views of the Government of India and Defence Research and Studies
Article Courtesy: https://www.firstpost.com/
